The The impact of Climate Change on Water Management and Pumped Storage Hydropower Capacity : A Case Study of Chulabhorn Dam

Abstract

Currently, the growing electricity demand amid limited resources and escalating, climate change is becoming more severe. Impacting the country's renewable energy. The research aims to develop optimal water management strategies and assess the current and future potential of hydropower plants. It also analyzes rainfall patterns under climate change scenarios, which affect runoff and power generation. Using the HEC-ResSim and rainfall data under SSP245 SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios is period 2025–2050 (26 years), The study found climate models used include 3 models: ACCESS-ESM1-5, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and UKESM1-0-LL. Under the SSP245 scenario, rainfall is projected to increase by 1.43–8.19%, SSP370 scenario, it is expected to decrease by 0.19–7.31% and under the SSP585 scenario, rainfall is projected to increase by 0.41–3.44%. Annually, The dry season, rainfall is on average 0.69–27.71 mm lower than historical values, The wet season, it exceeds historical levels by approximately 2.68–36.46 mm, indicating that seasonal variations significantly affect rainfall amounts. The simulation results achieved a calibration R² of 0.98–0.99 and RMSE values of 0.77 m. (water level) and 3.77 MCM (Volume). The simulation covered the period from 2005 to 2018 (14 years) and was divided into two cases: Case 1 (current hydropower plants) generated a total of 92.21 GWh, while Case 2 (pumped storage hydropower plants designed to meet future electricity demand) incorporated a configuration of 8 hours of generation and 11 hours of pumping, achieving a total generation of 2,403.53 GWh. which represents a 2,506% increase compared to Case 1.These findings demonstrate that pumped storage hydropower plants can significantly enhance electricity generation capacity to efficiently meet future energy demands.